7. The Impact of Climate Change on the Social Contract

Climate change is expected to alter the quantity and spatial distribution of rainfall across Africa, this will have ensuing impacts on water systems (Carter & Parker, 2009) and especially groundwater recharge functions which are becoming increasingly vital to water accessibility in the anthropocene (Scheumann & Alker, 2009), despite scientific understanding of groundwater aquifers being notably underdeveloped. Reports evidencing the decline of the water table across groundwater aquifers point towards risks of irreversible salinization of groundwater as human reliance on it increases (ibid, 2009). Furthermore due to the specificity of the geological formation per aquifer, there is no common rule for how changing water levels in one area will affect another area of the aquifer, nor rules as to recharge rate or how human impact will create change. In the case of ancient groundwater aquifers such as the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System, its substantial depth results in the irreplaceable nature of the water source since fossil reserves are not an active part of the surrounding hydrological cycle (IAEA, 2010). Such limitations surrounding groundwater aquifers as a water source, alongside their inevitable transboundary nature, requires strong transboundary cooperation between users of the groundwater basin. 

My previous post discussed the example of citizen technology initiatives whereby efforts are being made to improve data collection and sharing, an important component of improving transboundary cooperation. Whilst researching this topic, I was impressed by the  IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) project using isotope hydrology to understand the NSAS (Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System);

how much water can feasibly be removed, how long the resource could last, and the effects of one country tapping the water on another country using the same aquifer. The project involves participants from all four users of the aquifer: Chad, Egypt, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Sudan (IAEA, 2011). 

Figure 1. Image outlines the borders of the NSAS. (IAEA, 2011)

Although we are seeing the beginnings of understanding the hydrological nature of groundwater aquifers, in this case the NSAS, the effects of climate change in itself, let alone its effects on individual groundwater aquifers, is yet to be predicted. Current scientific focus of climate change is toward predicting hydrological changes such as rainfall and changes in weather patterns, yet the more immediate results of climate change are likely to center on the social impacts of rising energy costs, food poverty and hunger, and rising food costs. This compounded with Africa’s heightening population growth (predicted to grow by 154% between 2000 and 2050) and ageing demographic (from a median age of 19 in 2005 to a median age of 28 in 2050) (Carter & Parker, 2009) adds to expectations of greater burden on water resources in the coming half century. Furthermore institutional inertia, whereby inefficient large engineering projects (such as dams) and government health policies encouraging per capita water consumption, promotes unsustainable water usage given the issues of population growth (Thompson, 2019; ibid, 2009). The aforementioned factors point toward water resources running out faster than currently predicted, thus requiring more effective water management which require better understanding of hydrological systems. Projects like that of the IAEA in the NSAS are crucial in their fundamental nature of involving transboundary actors. 

However although we can demonstrate that governmental and non-governmental actors are important in achieving transnational cooperation, research is lacking to demonstrate the vitality of all-inclusive citizen action. The disparity between state actors and uninvolved citizens, coinciding with impending impacts of climate change create questions of how this will affect political relations between citizen and state. The consistent institutional inertia of health programs promoting high water usage are demonstrably misaligned with the impacts of climate change. Where citizens place responsibility of sustainable resource management onto the state, could such a major miscalculation of the state lead to the disintegration of the legitimacy of the social contract? The ensuing failure of tools of biopolitical power (such as health policy) would therefore decrease the legitimacy of state biopolitics (Foucault, 1979), as can be seen in already emerging international anti-governmental movements (e.g. the rise of grassroots movements taking control of traditionally governmental responsibilities). Climate change is an issue demanding collective citizen action, the centralised nature of nationwide decision making is potentially at odds with the most effective methodologies of overcoming impending climate events. Does this then alter the current state hegemonic system? Citizens are therefore required to take responsibility (for example in the case of decreasing birth rates), especially where the wealth gap between classes leaves those with low socioeconomic status trapped in their geographical locus. 

As already seen from our lack of knowledge in groundwater aquifer systems and precise predictions of climate change impacts, investigating the social and political impacts of climate change is a highly theoretical topic, but I think it is useful to consider such questions. Industrialised societies require a centralised source of power and obedient worker system to succeed, such a system is based on the value of trust (as materialised through currency), yet if the trust system were to break down, in what way would the centralised power system change, how would new trust systems emerge. In my next post I intend to look more in depth specifically at the NSAS; current and future transboundary cooperation, and predicted social impacts of climate change on nations relying on the aquifer.